What to expect from audiences this winter

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Written By Patternmakers

Are audiences jumping at the chance to make up for lost time or are they settling into the winter blues?

Answer: Both?  

We’ve been tracking audiences for some time now, and we’re gearing up for a quick Pulse Check in August 2022.

We think it’s time to get a fresh read on audience sentiment, and provide decision-makers around the country with the latest insights.

Yes, partly that’s because in most states/territories around Australia, COVID-cases are on the rise again.

But at this point in the recovery process, confidence is not just about the virus anymore. There’s a whole range of things influencing the market right now, which is why we at Patternmakers are ‘widening the lens’ for the Audience Outlook Monitor.

A major factor influencing audiences and their interactions with the arts and cultural sector is the current economic outlook. 

On the one hand, things are looking pretty rosy, and in March we noted spending levels reaching new highs, as audiences flocked back to events after the long lockdowns of 2021.

In the last few months, many Australians have set their travel plans in motion, with nearly 50% having already spent money on travel this year. Out-of-home entertainment spending, such as for major sporting events, concerts, theatre, museums, zoos and theme parks, has also risen above pre-COVID levels as people are embracing a restriction-free return to normalcy.  

However - there’s now a lot more competition for audiences - and not all live events are sharing equally in the upswing.

Word on the street is that outdoor festivals are thriving. In Hobart, Dark Mofo’s two-week event in June was 94% of pre-COVID heights. In NSW, Vivid Sydney 2022 set a new attendance record of 2.58 million, a 7.5% rise from 2019. 

Meanwhile, ticket sales at indoor ticketed events have been patchy. Sales for the Sydney Writers Festival in May were ‘considerably down’ and many of the sold-out events ended up only being 70-80% of full capacity due to late cancellations and no-shows. Similar scenarios are unfolding at venues around the country - as audiences hesitate about booking, and then hesitate about turning up!

Social anxiety is real. And it’s about to get that little bit harder.

The cost of living is skyrocketing, with the highest inflation rate since 2001 and interest rates on the march.

As everyone empties their splurge account - the economy is looking like it ate too much at the buffet and needs a lie down.

The result is that more people will be feeling nervous, and looking to make lifestyle changes or ‘cut back’ to accommodate financial difficulties. Discretionary spending is usually the first to go as entertainment and recreation take the backseat to make room for essentials such as groceries, petrol and electricity.  

And then we have the virus no-one wants to talk about.

If the tension between economic uncertainty and the desire to ‘get back to normal’ weren’t enough to give you whiplash, then the first winter of no COVID restrictions will be.

We’re now facing the third wave, but the difference this time is that we’ll have virtually no restrictions in place to limit the spread. The Chief Health Officers are nervous, and I can see why. After the election put COVID news firmly on the back-burner, few want to bring it back and Reuters reports that there’s also an epidemic of news avoidance to contend with (especially news about COVID-19).

So what does this all mean?

  • Audience sentiment is fluctuating - not as wildly as in the early days of the pandemic - but we should prepare ourselves for a bumpy winter - especially at ticketed seated indoor events.

  • COVID-19 is still affecting audience behaviour - even though no-one wants to talk about it - and the pandemic is likely to have a ‘long-tail’.

  • Relaxed restrictions may actually increase hesitancy among some people - as they can no longer rely on things like mask-wearing requirements at many events.

  • Economic factors are a big deal - and rising interest rates could start to dampen demand (in fact, the RBA will keep increasing them until it does!).

  • Competition in the market is going to be fierce in late 2022 and 2023, as we see a backlog of events hit the market, and some big marketing budgets are spent.

In this environment, it’s wise to manage expectations, and be strategic about where we put our efforts

Targeted programming and marketing is vital - and for my money, I think we should all be looking at the volume of activity that makes sense for the times. A regenerative approach that prioritises rest, reflection and recovery is going to put us in the best position long-term.

We’ll release new data in late August that shows how sentiment is changing, among which segments and for what kinds of events, so you can make the best possible decisions - and have evidence-based discussions with your team, board, funders, and audiences!

Subscribe below for updates - or get in touch with us for any questions or suggestions via info@thepatternmakers.com.au.

About the Author

Tandi Palmer Williams
Managing Director

Head geek and leader of Patternmakers.

 
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